San Francisco Real Estate
November 2025 Report
As of the end of October, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had reached new highs; 30-year mortgage
rates hit their lowest point in over a year; inflation ticked up slightly to 3%; and the Fed made
its second .25% reduction of its benchmark rate in 2025 (while cautioning that another
reduction in December was not certain). General consumer confidence remained low, with
significant unease regarding personal finances, job security and inflation – though affluent
consumers enjoying substantial stock market gains were less worried. The Economic Policy
Uncertainty Index continued to decline from its tariff-shock peak in April but remained high by
long-term norms.
The San Francisco real estate market continues to rapidly accelerate due to the AI startup
boom: October's sales hit the highest count since May 2022, while luxury home sales were the
best in 4 years. The number of price reductions plummeted 46% on a year-over-year basis,
while the pending ratio – a standard measure of market heat – hit its highest monthly reading
since the peak of the pandemic boom. 80% of house sales and 44% of condo sales sold for over
list price. Virtually all the market indicators point to a dramatic increase in buyer demand
competing for a declining number of listings.
The market typically slows from mid-November to mid-January, though it’s possible that this
year will buck that trend. In any case, listing and sales activity continue in every month of the
year – however, mid-winter is usually the period when buyers can negotiate most aggressively
on unsold homes listed earlier in the year.
This analysis and data were compiled by our friend Patrick Carlisle at Compass.
