The Lurie Group
Interest rates; stock markets; NAR Q3 U.S. data, housing affordability & new-home prices

Interest rates; stock markets; NAR Q3 U.S. data, housing affordability & new-home prices

  • Alexander Lurie
  • November 11, 2023

In the first 3 days of November, daily average 30-year interest rates suddenly plunged to 7.38% after hovering about 8%, but as of the daily reading on Nov. 9th (7.41% per Mortgage News Daily), they've barely changed since. Below are 2 charts - short-term and long-term - based on the weekly average rate published by Freddie Mac. (The daily rate chart through 11/3 was included in the November Bay Area newsletters announced on Tuesday.)

Chart of weekly 30-year mortgage rates rising from about 3% in January 2022 to 7.5% in November 2023.

Chart of U.S. 30-year mortgage rates from 1976 to 2023, peaking in 1981 and rising sharply after 2021.

Though a little down so far yesterday, stock markets have seen a big rebound since late October after their big decline in most of that month. Note that the percentages highlighted refer to year-to-date changes.

Chart comparing 2023 year-to-date Nasdaq and S&P 500 gains, ending at 31% and 14%.
 
NAR published Q3 national statistics yesterday morning. Below is the national existing single-family-dwelling median sales price since 1989, which is up 2.2% year over year, and then appreciation rates over various periods of time. 

Chart of U.S. median home prices from 1989 to Q3 2023, highlighting the subprime bubble and pandemic-era rise.

Chart showing U.S. home price appreciation, from 2.2% since 2022 to 314.4% since 1990.

Metro-Area prices and year-over-year appreciation rates: "More than 80% of metro markets (182 out of 221) posted [year-over-year] home price gains in the third quarter of 2023...Year-over-year prices in the third quarter retreated by 10.3% in Austin, 1.5% in Phoenix, 1.2% in Salt Lake City and 1.1% in both Dallas and Houston. However, prices rose by 9.6% in San Jose, 8.7% in both Anaheim and San Diego, 6.6% in Boston and 5.7% in Miami." Note that metro areas typically cover much wider regions than just the cities they are named for - for example the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward metro area includes SF, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin & San Mateo Counties (with the 2 east bay counties dominating sales volumes). The San Jose metro includes Santa Clara and San Benito Counties (and is utterly dominated by Santa Clara sales). 

Eight of the top 10 most expensive markets in the U.S. were in California, though not all are included on this table.

Q3 2023 table comparing median home sale prices and annual price changes across U.S. metro areas.


U.S. Housing affordability:  "Housing affordability worsened in the third quarter because of increasing home prices and mortgage rates. Families typically spent 26.8% of their income on mortgage payments, up from 25.3% in the prior quarter and 23.5% one year ago." 

Chart of U.S. housing affordability from 1989 to 2023, with payments reaching 28% of median income in Q3 2023.

New-home prices:  Median prices for new-construction homes have fallen in 2023, even as their percentage of total national sales has increased due to the huge drop in resale listings. Part of this may be a change in either 1) where most of the new homes are being constructed and sold, and 2) the median size of homes being built. Or it may simply have to do with builders dealing with the increase in interest rates by reducing their prices.

Chart of U.S. new-home sale prices from 1990 to 2023, with a sharp rise during the pandemic and a decline in 2023.

Alexander Lurie smiling in a dark blazer and striped shirt.

Meet Alexander

Meet Alexander Lurie

Alexander Fromm Lurie is a highly accomplished San Francisco real estate professional and the leader of The Lurie Group, a top-performing team recognized among the top 1% of agents in the city. With over a decade of experience in the real estate industry and California DRE License #01952347, Alexander has built a reputation for delivering exceptional results, with hundreds of homes sold and over $1 billion in total sales volume. Born and raised in San Francisco, he brings deep local expertise, generational knowledge of the Bay Area, and a strong connection to the community into every client relationship. His approach goes beyond transactions—focusing on helping clients build meaningful connections to neighborhoods, schools, and local culture while navigating the buying or selling process with confidence.

Alexander’s background in management consulting and entrepreneurship further strengthens his strategic approach to real estate, allowing him to provide clients with a competitive edge in pricing, negotiation, and marketing. Known for his integrity, discretion, and client-first mindset, he continues to be a trusted advisor for buyers, sellers, and investors across San Francisco’s dynamic real estate market.

Alexander Lurie

Founder | Real Estate Advisor
LICENSE NUMBER
01952347
ADDRESS
629 Divisadero Street, San Francisco, CA 94117

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