San Francisco Real Estate
June 2025 Report
Ongoing volatility in political/economic conditions – particularly the plunge in stock markets in April,
which affected May home sales – took some of the wind out of the spring real estate market, usually
the most dynamic of the year. Uncertainty regarding the economy and the possible implications for
personal financial circumstances understandably made a proportion of buyers and sellers hesitant
about moving forward. Still, while most Bay Area markets slowed year over year, there was nothing
approximating a crash. As inventory continued to rise, sales activity failed to keep pace, resulting in
lower absorption rates (a comparison of demand vs. supply). With more homes for sale and
somewhat less competition between buyers, overbidding generally declined, time-on-market ticked
up, and price reductions increased. Most counties saw small year-over-year declines in their 3-
month-rolling median home sales prices.
But many of these indicators of slowdown did not occur in San Francisco, which had one of the Bay
Area’s strongest markets in May: SF median sales prices rose, inventory remained steady, and both
the number of listings going into contract and the % of sales sold for over asking price increased.
It’s worth noting that virtually all May sales were negotiated before the May 12 reversal of China-
tariff policies, which triggered an enormous rebound in the stock market. Unlike stocks, home sales
don’t reflect shifts in market conditions instantly – there is typically a 3-to-6-week lag between offer
acceptance and close of sale – and there are indications that the effects of April’s negative economic
gyrations on buyer and seller psychology in the Bay Area may already be fading.
The speed and scale of developments in 2025 – tariffs, stock markets, inflation, interest rates,
consumer confidence, tax law, national debt concerns, international relations, what the Fed decides,
and so on – have made it challenging for real estate market reports to keep up. As always, real estate
trends vary locally. The rest of this report focuses on the specifics of the San Francisco market.
This analysis and data were compiled by our friend Patrick Carlisle at Compass.
