Aug 14th WSJ, "Cooling Inflation Sets Stage for September Rate Cut". CPI dropped below 3% (to 2.9%) for the first time in well over 3 years. So far, both financial markets and bond markets are reacting conservatively to the positive news, with relatively small movements up or down.
Daily 30-year mortgage interest rate has been hovering around 6.5%. From Mortgage News Daily, "Mortgage Application Volume Soars, Refi Index Up 35%: A second week of lower interest rates appeared to send homeowners scrambling to refinance their higher-rate mortgages assumed over the last few years. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 16.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Refinance Index soared by 35.0 percent compared to the prior week and was 118 percent higher than the same week one year ago."
Daily 30-year mortgage interest rate has been hovering around 6.5%. From Mortgage News Daily, "Mortgage Application Volume Soars, Refi Index Up 35%: A second week of lower interest rates appeared to send homeowners scrambling to refinance their higher-rate mortgages assumed over the last few years. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 16.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Refinance Index soared by 35.0 percent compared to the prior week and was 118 percent higher than the same week one year ago."
S&P & Nasdaq stock market indices: Trending up in recent days, but little changed today as of mid-day with the new inflation report.
Q2 2024 National Housing Affordability: Higher median house sales price, higher interest rates in Q2 = affordability within a whisker of the all-time low reading in Q3 2023 (when interest rates were close to 8%). The Q2 reading will not reflect the recent decline in interest rates since June.
ADU construction in CA: Trending up rapidly.
Q2 2024 National Housing Affordability: Higher median house sales price, higher interest rates in Q2 = affordability within a whisker of the all-time low reading in Q3 2023 (when interest rates were close to 8%). The Q2 reading will not reflect the recent decline in interest rates since June.
Q2 Metro-Area Median Existing-House Sales Prices & Year-over-Year Changes - Selected Metros:
Per NAR, "Almost 90% of metro markets (199 out of 223, or 89%) recorded home price gains in the second quarter of 2024, as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate ranged from 6.82% to 7.22%. The median single-family existing-home price for the San Jose, California metro area was $2,008,000 – it's the first time that a metro area's median price exceeded $2 million." The San Jose Metro (defined as Santa Clara & San Benito Counties), home of Nvidia, southern San Mateo County and southern Alameda County contain the markets most dramatically affected by what is being called the AI boom, though SF is also seeing a less dramatic impact. Note: The "San Francisco Metro Area" - delineated on the table below - contains SF, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa Counties.
U.S. unemployment rate: Ticking up but still very low by long-term standards.
