Inflation ticked back up slightly in May. Many analysts and economists expect the impact of new tariff policies to show up in coming months, but nothing has shown up so far.
This analysis and data were compiled by our friend Patrick Carlisle at Compass.
"Consumer sentiment improved for the first time in six months, climbing 16% from last month...These trends were unanimous across the distributions of age, income, wealth, political party, and geographic region. Moreover, all five index components rose, with a particularly steep increase for short and long-run expected business conditions, consistent with a perceived easing of pressures from tariffs. Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April...However, consumers still perceive wide-ranging downside risks to the economy....[and] remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy...Year-ahead inflation expectations plunged from 6.6% last month to 5.1% this month." University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, 6/13/25
This analysis and data were compiled by our friend Patrick Carlisle at Compass.
"Consumer sentiment improved for the first time in six months, climbing 16% from last month...These trends were unanimous across the distributions of age, income, wealth, political party, and geographic region. Moreover, all five index components rose, with a particularly steep increase for short and long-run expected business conditions, consistent with a perceived easing of pressures from tariffs. Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April...However, consumers still perceive wide-ranging downside risks to the economy....[and] remain guarded and concerned about the trajectory of the economy...Year-ahead inflation expectations plunged from 6.6% last month to 5.1% this month." University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, 6/13/25
Interest rates have been stable for weeks now.
Federal debt, deficits, interest payments and balance of trade have been much in the news lately. For those interested, the charts below provide some context amid large, recent changes in federal policy; the discussion of proposed changes in revenue, taxes and benefits in the "Big, Beautiful Bill"; reactions in stock and bond markets; and possible impacts on interest rates.
Stock markets are holding onto their massive rebounds over the past 2 months.
The price of oil has been spiking up with Israel's attack on Iran. On virtually every political and economic front, we now live in a very volatile world.
Federal debt, deficits, interest payments and balance of trade have been much in the news lately. For those interested, the charts below provide some context amid large, recent changes in federal policy; the discussion of proposed changes in revenue, taxes and benefits in the "Big, Beautiful Bill"; reactions in stock and bond markets; and possible impacts on interest rates.
The trade deficit saw a dramatic change in April as many imports plunged due to the imposition of tariffs, a constantly changing situation.
