The Census released 2024 county population figures today - they use a July 1 to July 1 "year". Most counties saw increases in population in the last 12-month period measured, with the most common dynamics being 1) negative domestic migration - more residents leaving for other U.S. locations than moving in from within the U.S. - this has been the regional trend for years, 2) very positive net foreign migration - immigration was the biggest factor in Bay Area, California and national population changes last year (though I expect net foreign migration will plummet in 2025), and 3) more births than deaths. But there were differences between counties. A few counties hit new population highs, but others remain well down from before the pandemic hit.
This analysis and data were compiled by our friend Patrick Carlisle at Compass.
As mentioned, year-over-year population increases in the last 12-month period are common, but some counties remain down from before the pandemic. In markets with the larger losses, declines in tenant populations often appear to be the dominant factor - that is certainly true in San Francisco.
As released on Wednesday, the general CPI inflation reading dropped in February, the first decline since September. Initial response was muted since investors, economists and analysts are waiting to see what the impact of the dramatic on-again, off-again, on-again tariffs might be on inflation and the economy - and anxiety is growing over the constantly changing messages from Washington.
Consumer confidence (sentiment) continues to plummet. Per the report released this morning: "Consumer sentiment slid another 11% this month, with declines seen consistently across all groups by age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions. Sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is currently down 22% from December 2024. While current economic conditions were little changed, expectations for the future deteriorated across multiple facets of the economy, including personal finances, labor markets, inflation, business conditions, and stock markets...Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 4.3% last month to 4.9% this month, the highest reading since November 2022." Surveys of Consumers, Director Joanne Hsu, 03/14/25
Fears of recession: On March 10th, when asked if the economy might go into recession this year, the president said "he hated to predict things like that" and that "the country would experience "a period of transition." This spooked the markets, led to a big decline in stock indices and a spike in the volatility index. (Fed chairman Powell responded to all the excitement with ""The US economy continues to be in a good place.") This Google chart covers 90 days through March 11th: Google Searches on "Recession:" A value of 100 is the peak "popularity" for the search term during the period. Recession is suddenly part of the economic discussion again.
Interest rates are down from earlier in the year, when they went past 7%, but have still been running in the 6.6% to 6.8% range. According to Freddie Mac, purchase-loan applications are up 5% year over year. Apparently, refinancing applications have jumped much more. (15-year loan rates are running almost a full point lower.)
Interest rates are down from earlier in the year, when they went past 7%, but have still been running in the 6.6% to 6.8% range. According to Freddie Mac, purchase-loan applications are up 5% year over year. Apparently, refinancing applications have jumped much more. (15-year loan rates are running almost a full point lower.)
As of this morning, stock markets were rebounding somewhat after a bad 3 weeks. This chart goes through yesterday's market closings, and looks at 2024-2025 YTD.
Stock markets in 2025 YTD: As of yesterday, the major indices are down roughly 6% & 10% year to date (not counting this morning's rebound). The Nasdaq has had a particularly rocky time. Of course, stock markets are a large factor in household wealth, especially of more affluent homebuyers - and played a substantial role in luxury home sales in the last 14 months. Of course, stock markets could soon rebound dramatically - volatility has become the norm - but I've heard that the recent plunge surprised some buyers planning on using their highly appreciated stocks to buy homes.
What occurs in the market in the next 3 months will be the critical indicator of conditions and direction, and possibly of the economy at large.
The volatility index peaked on March 10th at by far its highest point of 2025, and has been ticking up and down since. Volatility is an indicator of uncertainty, which typically is not popular with either investors or consumers. It usually makes them hesitant to make big financial decisions as they wait to see how things will shake out.
What occurs in the market in the next 3 months will be the critical indicator of conditions and direction, and possibly of the economy at large.
