This analysis and data were compiled by our friend Patrick Carlisle at Compass.
The Fed continues to refuse to lower their benchmark rate despite enormous political pressure to do so. They cite the strong economy and the potential for inflation to increase. Expectations regarding the timing and size of future cuts fluctuate constantly.
In recent months, interest rates have been ticking up and down (and up) within a relatively narrow band of values: Below are conforming-loan and jumbo rate charts.
The Consumer Sentiment (Confidence) index ticked up slightly on July 18's release, but remains very low by long-term standards: "Consumer sentiment was little changed from June [and]…while sentiment reached its highest value in five months, it remains… well below its historical average… Consumers are unlikely to regain their confidence in the economy unless they feel assured that inflation is unlikely to worsen…At this time, [there is] little evidence that other policy developments, including the recent passage of the tax and spending bill, moved the needle much on consumer sentiment. Year-ahead inflation expectations fell for a second straight month, plunging from 5.0% last month to 4.4% this month…the lowest since February…[But indications are] that consumers still perceive substantial risk that inflation will increase in the future." University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, Director Joanne Hsu, 7/18/25