San Francisco Real Estate
September 2024 Report
Autumn Market Begins with Lowest
Interest Rates Since Spring 2023
The August market was basically in a holding pattern, following typical seasonal trends, as the
summer holidays drew to a close amid declining interest rates, indications of impending cuts in
the Fed’s benchmark rate, improving housing affordability, substantial financial market volatility,
and a huge helping of presidential election news. The autumn selling season, just begun, typically
sees significant market activity before the big mid-winter slowdown begins in late November, and
some expect a very substantial rebound in demand due to interest rate declines.
"The time has come for policy to adjust...the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming
data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks...My confidence has grown that inflation is on
a sustainable path back to 2 percent.”
Jerome Powell, Chairman, Federal Reserve Bank, 8/23/24
“We forecast mortgage rates to gradually decline in the coming quarters and anticipate a
significant surge in homebuying demand, mainly from the first-time homebuyers left at the
margins. However, the tight inventory is still expected to limit home sales. We expect home sales
to increase modestly the remainder of the year and home prices to rise 2.1% in 2024.”
Freddie Mac Research (FHLMC), 8/22/24
“Consumers’ short- and long-run economic outlook improved [in August], with both figures
reaching their most favorable levels since April 2024 and a particularly sizable 10% improvement
for long-run expectations that was seen across age and income groups.”
University of Michigan, Survey of Consumers, 8/30/24
“Latest macroeconomic data suggests that the economy remains solid, with the cooling trend in
inflation continuing at the start of Q3 2024. Both consumers and business leaders feel upbeat in
general and have a positive outlook about the near future. With the Fed expected to adjust rates
downward in their next few meetings, the housing market should pick up some momentum
throughout the rest of the year. There are challenges...The ongoing insurance crisis, for
example...has presented difficulties for homebuying and could remain a major headache for the
market [over] the next couple of years.”
California Association of Realtors, 9/6/24
“Presidential elections have little impact on home sales...[ultimately] home purchases are usually
life decisions rather than political ones.”
John Burns Research & Consulting, 7/30/24
