San Francisco Real Estate
December 2024 Report
In late November, Bay Area markets began moving into the mid-winter holiday slowdown, which in
December typically results in the lowest counts of the year for new listings coming on market and
homes going into contract. Homes are still listed and deals continue to be made, just at a much
slower pace, and this is usually the period where buyers can negotiate most aggressively on unsold
properties with longer days-on-market.
It is difficult to make definitive determinations about where the market is heading in 2025 from Q4
statistics, but in the last several years, demand rebounded substantially early in the new year and
then accelerated into spring. And some agents have reported a significant increase in clients wanting
to list their homes next year. As always, much depends on political and macroeconomic factors that
can be challenging to predict.
This report will look at supply and demand dynamics in November – but note that many of
November’s sales statistics reflect listings that went into contract in October – and our January
report will review longer-term, annual numbers that will provide greater context to 2024 market
conditions and trends.
As of the first week of December, 30-year conforming mortgage interest rates were ticking down
again, but still about a half point above early October’s. Stock markets have continued to hit new
highs on almost a daily basis; inflation ticked up slightly (11/13/24 reading); the Fed dropped their
benchmark rate another quarter percent (11/7/24); the jobs report rebounded (12/6/24); and
consumer confidence hit its highest reading in 7 months (12/6/24). These economic indicators may
impact different market segments differently depending on whether interest rates or stock values
most affect their buyers.
“We forecast the mortgage market to improve in 2025, based on a decline in mortgage rates
throughout the year. That should loosen some of the rate lock-in effect for existing
homeowners and offer more inventory in the market, resulting in slightly higher home sales.
It should also boost refinance origination volumes. We expect house prices to continue to
grow, although at a slower pace.”
Freddie Mac (FHLMC) Research, 12/2/24
“Homebuying momentum is building after nearly two years of suppressed home sales. Even
with mortgage rates modestly rising despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the short-
term interbank lending rate in September, continuous job additions and more housing
inventory are bringing more consumers to the market.”
Lawrence Yun, chief economist, National Association of Realtors, 11/21/24
“News on the economy and the housing market last week were mostly positive and
encouraging...The Consumer Confidence index which measures the level of optimism
increased...[and] There was also good news in the housing market, as conforming loan limits
were raised for 2025 and mortgage rates continued to recover [from] their recent peak in
early November. And while it was disappointing to see new home sales dropping to the
lowest level in October, a separate housing market index suggests that an improvement in
buyer traffic and future sales were observed in November.”
California Association of Realtors Research, 12/2/24
