San Francisco Real Estate
December 2025 Report
The real estate market began its usual mid-winter holiday season slowdown in November,
marked by a substantial decline in both listing and sales activity. This contraction typically
speeds up through December - normally the year's slowest month - before the market begins
to wake up in mid-January.
As illustrated within this report, by virtually every indicator – prices, inventory, overbidding,
speed of sale – the San Francisco market this past fall saw a stunning surge in demand, which
we ascribe to the accelerating AI startup boom in the city. San Francisco now has one of the
most heated markets in the country.
Our focus now shifts toward the New Year's market. In the past, the beginning of the year
frequently ushered in a substantially higher level of activity that continued to build into spring.
This occurred in early 2025 until affected by the "tariff shock" and subsequent economic
reactions, initiating a significant slowdown in April.
In the broader financial landscape, the first week of December saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
largely recover from their substantial declines in November; and the 30-year mortgage rate
was close to a 14-month low. While consumer confidence showed a modest rise from
November, it remains very low by long-term standards – but this does not seem to be
impacting the SF market. Attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision
regarding an end-of-year benchmark-rate reduction, and the subsequent inflation report due
later in the month.
This analysis and data were compiled by our friend Patrick Carlisle at Compass.
