The Lurie Group
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The Forces Behind Today’s Market

  • Alexander Lurie
  • January 30, 2026

Seasonality, Venture Capital in the Bay Area, State Population and Migration, Interest rates, Stock markets

The Seasonality flipbook version of the report is here. 

This analysis and data were compiled by our friend Patrick Carlisle at Compass.

Venture Capital Raised in 2025: Incredible numbers.

Bar chart of 2025 venture capital by city; the San Francisco Bay Area leads at about $154 billion.


New state migration and population data was just published by the census. (The latest county data published last year, but still several years old, is in this folder.) 

Infographic comparing California 2024 state-to-state migration, with in- and out-migration rankings and totals.

CA population was essentially unchanged (down .02%) in the last 12-month period measured (through 7/1/25). Net foreign immigration numbers plunged nationally (54%) and in CA (65%). With the new federal immigration and visa policies, they can be expected to plunge further in the current period and may well turn negative (i.e., more immigrants leaving than arriving, which would be a first for the country).

Chart of California population estimates from 2010 to 2025, with a decline after 2020 and partial recovery.


Net domestic migration (the number of CA residents leaving the state vs. the number moving in from other states) continues to run deeply negative, but in the last period was balanced out by net foreign immigration and natural cause (births less deaths).

Infographic comparing California population change components in the past year and since the pandemic.

Average daily interest rates through January 28th: 

Chart of 30-year fixed mortgage rates from 2023 to 2026, peaking near 8% in October 2023.


Stock markets:  The S&P hit a new high; the Nasdaq is very close. 

Chart comparing Nasdaq and S&P 500 performance from January 2025 to January 2026, including the April tariff shock.

2025 Bay Area market share charts can be downloaded from this folder.
 





 
 
 
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Meet Alexander

Meet Alexander Lurie

Alexander Fromm Lurie is a highly accomplished San Francisco real estate professional and the leader of The Lurie Group, a top-performing team recognized among the top 1% of agents in the city. With over a decade of experience in the real estate industry and California DRE License #01952347, Alexander has built a reputation for delivering exceptional results, with hundreds of homes sold and over $1 billion in total sales volume. Born and raised in San Francisco, he brings deep local expertise, generational knowledge of the Bay Area, and a strong connection to the community into every client relationship. His approach goes beyond transactions—focusing on helping clients build meaningful connections to neighborhoods, schools, and local culture while navigating the buying or selling process with confidence.

Alexander’s background in management consulting and entrepreneurship further strengthens his strategic approach to real estate, allowing him to provide clients with a competitive edge in pricing, negotiation, and marketing. Known for his integrity, discretion, and client-first mindset, he continues to be a trusted advisor for buyers, sellers, and investors across San Francisco’s dynamic real estate market.

Alexander Lurie

Founder | Real Estate Advisor
LICENSE NUMBER
01952347
ADDRESS
629 Divisadero Ave, San Francisco, CA 94117

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Our passion is supporting clients who value exceptional results and client care. We look forward to the opportunity to work together.
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