The Forces Behind Today’s Market

The Forces Behind Today’s Market

  • 01/30/26

Seasonality, Venture Capital in the Bay Area, State Population and Migration, Interest rates, Stock markets

The Seasonality flipbook version of the report is here

This analysis and data were compiled by our friend Patrick Carlisle at Compass.

Venture Capital Raised in 2025: Incredible numbers.


New state migration and population data was just published by the census. (The latest county data published last year, but still several years old, is in this folder.



CA population was essentially unchanged (down .02%) in the last 12-month period measured (through 7/1/25). Net foreign immigration numbers plunged nationally (54%) and in CA (65%). With the new federal immigration and visa policies, they can be expected to plunge further in the current period and may well turn negative (i.e., more immigrants leaving than arriving, which would be a first for the country).



Net domestic migration (the number of CA residents leaving the state vs. the number moving in from other states) continues to run deeply negative, but in the last period was balanced out by net foreign immigration and natural cause (births less deaths).



Average daily interest rates through January 28th: 


Stock markets:  The S&P hit a new high; the Nasdaq is very close. 



2025 Bay Area market share charts can be downloaded from this folder.
 




 
 
 

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