San Francisco Real Estate
January 2026 Report
In 2025, Bay Area real estate markets started the year seeing strong buyer demand, but had the wind
taken out of their sails by the political/economic uncertainty that soared in early spring. Then, in mid-
late summer, stock markets rebounded to hit new highs, and interest rates began a sustained decline,
initiating a shift in the psychology of buyers and sellers that is still developing.
However, in San Francisco, the market has been supercharged by its AI startup boom, a dynamic that
dramatically accelerated this past fall. After years of social, economic and demographic challenges,
the city has shifted back from being the weakest market in the Bay Area to the strongest. Stupendous
amounts of new wealth are being created, and market conditions may well exceed those last seen in
the IPO boom of 2019. Demand is far outpacing the supply of homes for sale, and we expect the city’s
median house sales price will reach a new high in 2026. The luxury home market is particularly
competitive, and in our most expensive district – which includes Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow
Hollow and Marina – median house and condo prices already hit new peaks in 2025. The condo
market, though not as heated as the house market, has begun a substantial recovery fueled by high-
tech workers flocking to the city.
As 2026 begins, interest rates are near multi-year lows and stock markets are at or close to all-time
peaks. Early in the new year, it is common for buyers, re-energized to move forward with major life
decisions, to jump back into the market faster than sellers list their homes for sale. This disparity of
increasing demand versus a low supply of new listings usually runs through the spring, typically
making these months the most heated selling season of the year. Last year, this was upended by the
tariff shock. Barring new, unexpected economic alarms, we expect this spring to very heated indeed.
NOTE: This report includes an image link to our comprehensive review of district and neighborhood
values and market dynamics.
This analysis and data were compiled by our friend Patrick Carlisle at Compass.
