San Francisco Real Estate
July 2026 Report
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The Local Lowdown
Quick Take:
Single-family home prices have surged more than 26% year-over-year, marking the strongest annual gain we've seen this year.
Inventory has reached crisis levels, with single-family home listings down nearly 60% compared to last year.
Single-family homes are selling in just 12 days, while condos are moving in about three weeks.
Single-family home prices post their strongest year-over-year gain of 2026
June brought extraordinary price appreciation to San Francisco's single-family home market, with the median sale price climbing 26.47% year-over-year to $2,150,000. This marks the strongest annual gain we've seen so far in 2026. The condo market, by contrast, saw much more modest growth, with the median sale price inching up just 0.63% to $1,200,000. Competition for single-family homes has reached unprecedented levels, with the average home selling for more than 26% over the original asking price. Condos are also commanding premiums, selling for nearly 6% over asking on average.
San Francisco's inventory crisis reaches new extremes
The inventory shortage that has defined San Francisco's market throughout 2026 has reached its most severe point yet. There are currently just 135 single-family homes for sale in the entire city, representing a staggering 59.09% decline compared to June 2025. To put this in perspective, there were 330 single-family homes available last June, meaning the market has lost nearly two-thirds of its inventory in just one year. The condo market is also under severe pressure, with inventory down 44.25% year-over-year to just 378 units. With barely 500 total homes available for sale citywide, buyers are facing the most limited selection in recent memory.
Listings continue to move at a rapid clip
The extreme scarcity of inventory has kept the market moving at a blistering pace. The average single-family home is selling in just 12 days, representing a 14.29% decrease compared to last June. The condo market has also accelerated significantly, with the average condo selling in 23 days, a 28.13% year-over-year decline. For single-family home buyers in particular, the combination of razor-thin inventory and rapid sales velocity means that hesitation is simply not an option when a desirable property hits the market.
San Francisco has become one of the tightest seller's markets in the country
When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.
With just 0.7 months of single-family home inventory and 1.8 months of condo inventory on the market, San Francisco has become one of the most extreme seller's markets in the state. The single-family market's 0.7 months of supply means that at the current pace of sales, every available home would be sold in just three weeks. Both figures are down more than 50% year-over-year, with single-family MSI plummeting 61.11% and condo MSI dropping 53.85%. Sellers hold virtually all the leverage in today's market, and there is no indication that conditions will ease for buyers any time soon.
Local Lowdown Data
The Big Story
Quick Take:
- Median home sale prices hit their highest level in a year, as the spring rally has now carried prices above where they were at this time last year.
- Inventory levels have plateaued heading into the summer, with a slight month-over-month decline in June.
- Existing home sales posted their strongest year-over-year gain in months, though they pulled back slightly from May's pace.
Median sale prices are at their highest level in a year
The spring rally that began back in January has officially pushed median home sale prices to their highest level in a year. In June, the median home sold for $440,600, representing a 2.18% month-over-month increase and a 1.83% year-over-year gain. This marks the fifth consecutive month of month-over-month price increases, and the median sale price has now surpassed the $432,700 peak we saw in June of last year. However, the affordability picture isn't quite as rosy as it was earlier in the year. Mortgage rates ticked up slightly to 6.43% in June, and the combination of rising prices and rates that have bounced off their March lows has pushed the median monthly P&I payment up to $2,274. While that's still 1.60% lower than the $2,311 the median homeowner was paying a year ago, the gap is shrinking fast. Back in January, the median P&I payment was $1,949, so monthly payments have risen by more than $300 in just five months. If this trend continues, the affordability gains that lower rates provided earlier in the year could be fully erased by the end of the summer.
Inventory has leveled off heading into the summer
After climbing steadily from the December low of 1,230,000, inventory levels appear to have plateaued. In June, there were 1,560,000 homes available for sale, representing a slight 0.64% month-over-month decline from the 1,570,000 we saw in May, though still 1.30% higher than where we were at this time last year. On the new listings front, 463,480 new listings hit the market in June, representing a 2.45% year-over-year increase but a 2.42% month-over-month decline from May. This pullback in both inventory and new listings could signal that the spring surge of supply is beginning to taper off, which would be notable given that June and July are typically peak months for inventory. If inventory begins to decline further while demand remains strong, we could see the market tighten up heading into the back half of the summer. On the other hand, inventory levels are still roughly in line with where they were last year, so there's no reason to panic just yet.
Existing home sales are up more than 4% on a year-over-year basis
Existing home sales came in at 4,090,000 in June, representing a 4.07% year-over-year increase, the strongest year-over-year gain we've seen in quite some time. That said, sales did pull back by 2.39% from May's pace, which isn't unusual given the typical seasonality of the market. The year-over-year increase is the real headline here, as it tells us that buyers are meaningfully more active than they were at this point last year. This is likely being driven by a combination of factors: mortgage rates are still lower than they were a year ago, inventory is providing more options to choose from, and the steady march of price appreciation may be creating a sense of urgency among buyers who don't want to wait any longer. The question heading into the second half of the year is whether this momentum can be sustained. With mortgage rates hovering in the mid-6% range and monthly payments creeping higher, we could see some buyers pull back if affordability continues to erode.
Buyers are stepping up, but sellers still have the edge
When determining whether a market is a buyers' market or a sellers' market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller's market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers' markets.
Right now, the national market appears to be tilting in favor of sellers. Existing home sales are up more than 4% year-over-year, which means demand is absorbing the available supply at a healthy clip. At the same time, inventory has plateaued and even declined slightly on a month-over-month basis, which means the supply side of the equation isn't growing fast enough to offset the increase in demand. If this dynamic persists through the summer, we could see months of supply tighten further, giving sellers even more leverage. However, with monthly P&I payments rapidly approaching where they were a year ago, there's a chance that demand cools off in the coming months, which would bring the market back toward balance. As always, real estate is a highly localized asset, which is why you should check out what's going on in your local market below in the Local Lowdown!
Big Story Data
