San Francisco Real Estate
September 2025 Report
Generally speaking, this summer’s market saw no large shifts in market dynamics beyond
typical seasonal changes, and due to the AI boom, San Francisco remains one of the strongest
markets in the Bay Area. The focus now is on the fall selling season, which runs from early
September to early November before listing and sales activity begins to plunge for the mid-
winter holidays. Early fall almost always begins with a huge surge in new listings, which then
provides a substantial boost to sales activity, especially in higher-price segments. Probably the
biggest wild card right now is what is going to happen to interest rates, but economic
indicators present a surprisingly wide range of mixed messages.
As of the first week of September, mortgage rates, at slightly below 6.3%, are suddenly getting
close to the 6% range many analysts believe is required to significantly boost buyer demand.
But interest rates have been extremely volatile in recent years, with big, sudden changes in
direction common – as occurred last year in late summer/early autumn. The AI boom
continues to gain traction in San Francisco, and stock markets have hit new all-time highs in
the past month, a big positive for affluent real estate markets like SF. The last inflation reading
was unchanged at 2.7%, but the more recent Producer Price Index saw its largest monthly
increase in over 3 years. Consumer confidence readings remain low; measures of economic
uncertainty and political volatility – both national and international – remain high; and the
latest jobs report was generally considered relatively dismal. Consensus opinion is predicting
the Fed will drop its benchmark rate this month – for the first time in 2025 – but much
depends on inflation reports due in coming weeks.
Besides the usual review of standard measurements of supply and demand, this report also
contains detailed information regarding San Francisco’s neighborhood markets.
This analysis and data were compiled by our friend Patrick Carlisle at Compass.
