The Lurie Group
San Francisco waterfront with a large Ferris wheel, a sailboat on the bay, and the RIU sign in the foreground.

Macroeconomic Charts: Positive Shifts in the Economy

  • Alexander Lurie
  • September 27, 2025

Inflation is easing toward the Fed’s target while U.S. GDP growth remains steady at 2.4%. Unemployment is still low by historic standards, and policy uncertainty is trending down. Stock markets are surging, mortgage rates have dipped closer to 6%, and long-term yields remain stable — all setting the stage for renewed buyer confidence. With inflation cooling, growth holding, and borrowing costs easing, the outlook feels increasingly constructive for investors, homeowners, and businesses alike.

Data were compiled by our friend Patrick Carlisle at Compass.

Chart of weekly 30-year mortgage rates from January 2023 to September 2025, ending at 6.35%.

Bar chart shows U.S. tariff revenue rising from January to a record $31.4 billion in August 2025.

Chart tracks 30-year mortgage rates from 2000 to 2025, highlighting pandemic-era lows and a 6.35% rate in September 2025.

Chart of jumbo mortgage rates, showing a 2023 peak above 8% and rates near 6.7% in September 2025.

Chart of 30-year fixed mortgage rates since 2023, showing 6.29% on September 5, 2025.

Chart comparing weekly 15-year and 30-year fixed mortgage rates from 2022 through September 2025.

Chart of U.S. CPI inflation from 1982 to 2025, with a red line and a sharp peak in 2022.

Line chart showing Nasdaq and S&P 500 gains from January 2024 to September 2025, ending near 50% and 39%.

Chart of 30-year mortgage rates from 1976 to 2025, peaking near 19% in 1981 and ending around 6.5%.

S&P 500 chart shows a general rise from 2014 to nearly 6,500 in 2025, with pandemic and year-start markers.

Producer Price Index bar chart, peaking at 11.7% in March 2022 and showing 2.6% in August 2025.

Bar chart shows U.S. CPI inflation peaking at 8.9% in June 2022 and falling to 2.9% in August 2025.

Chart of 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, peaking in 1981 and rising from 2021 lows.

Economic policy uncertainty index chart, showing a red monthly trend line from 2000 to August 2025 with crisis annotations.

Chart of monthly U.S. CPI and core inflation, 2021–2025, with red bars and a white trend line.

Federal funds rate chart from 1981 to 2025, with annotations on economic events and Federal Reserve actions.

Nasdaq Composite Index chart from 1995 to 2025, showing long-term growth and marked market downturns.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment index chart from 1978 to 2025, annotated with recessions, recoveries, and economic events.

Chart of U.S. quarterly real GDP growth from Q1 2022 through Q2 2025, with positive and negative rates.

Chart comparing California FAIR Plan insurance policy ratios by county in 2022 and 2023, with El Dorado highest.

Bar chart of monthly U.S. nonfarm job changes from January 2023 to August 2025, including a June 2025 decline.

Chart of continued unemployment claims, rising to about 1.95 million by July 2025 after a 2022 low.

Chart of U.S. unemployment from 2000 to August 2025, including the 2020 pandemic spike and a latest rate of 4.3%.

Bar chart of U.S. unemployment rates by age group, highest at 8.0% for ages 20–24.

Alexander Lurie smiling in a dark blazer and striped shirt.

Meet Alexander

Meet Alexander Lurie

Alexander Fromm Lurie is a highly accomplished San Francisco real estate professional and the leader of The Lurie Group, a top-performing team recognized among the top 1% of agents in the city. With over a decade of experience in the real estate industry and California DRE License #01952347, Alexander has built a reputation for delivering exceptional results, with hundreds of homes sold and over $1 billion in total sales volume. Born and raised in San Francisco, he brings deep local expertise, generational knowledge of the Bay Area, and a strong connection to the community into every client relationship. His approach goes beyond transactions—focusing on helping clients build meaningful connections to neighborhoods, schools, and local culture while navigating the buying or selling process with confidence.

Alexander’s background in management consulting and entrepreneurship further strengthens his strategic approach to real estate, allowing him to provide clients with a competitive edge in pricing, negotiation, and marketing. Known for his integrity, discretion, and client-first mindset, he continues to be a trusted advisor for buyers, sellers, and investors across San Francisco’s dynamic real estate market.

Alexander Lurie

Founder | Real Estate Advisor
LICENSE NUMBER
01952347
ADDRESS
629 Divisadero Street, San Francisco, CA 94117

Let's Work Together

Our passion is supporting clients who value exceptional results and client care. We look forward to the opportunity to work together.
Modern condo living and dining area with a geometric chandelier and Bay Bridge views through large windows.
link
Follow Us