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Selected Economic Indicators

  • Alexander Lurie
  • November 24, 2025

NAR released their 117 page, "2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers," with some interesting data, and a flipbook was also created highlighting the key takeaways, which can be found here. 

Weekly average 30-year fixed rate mortgage: Ticking up slightly in recent weeks. 

This analysis and data were compiled by our friend Patrick Carlisle at Compass.

Chart of weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rates from 2023 to 2025, peaking in late 2023 and falling to 6.26%.

Stock markets have had a few volatile weeks due to AI bubble concerns, over which there is vehement disagreement among analysts and industry pundits. As of mid-day today (EST), the S&P and Nasdaq are up about 1% from yesterday. 

Chart comparing Nasdaq and S&P 500 gains from 2024 through November 2025, with annotations for market events.

In my last update, I mentioned the "cyclically-adjusted price to earnings (CAPE) ratio" as one respected method of evaluating stock markets. I found the historical data to create the below chart, updated as of 11/1/25. 

Chart of S&P 500 CAPE ratio from 1985 to 2025, highlighting market peaks and crashes.

The VIX Volatility Index has been rapidly climbing since the month began. 

2025 VIX volatility chart with a sharp April spike labeled “Tariff shock” and a November rise.


Housing affordability, per NAR calculations for Q3. Higher readings signify lower affordability. With the recent decline in interest rates, affordability has improved. 

Chart of U.S. housing affordability from 1989 to 2025, with a sharp decline in affordability after 2021.

A new jobs report through September was just released. As mentioned in the past, the latest numbers are often revised so substantially in subsequent months that I don't know why economists, investors and analysts consider them reliable. 


Bar chart of monthly U.S. job changes, January 2023 to September 2025, highlighting weak recent employment growth.

Unemployment has been ticking up. It is now up to its highest reading since 2021, though not high by long-term standards. 

Chart of U.S. unemployment rates from 2000 to 2025, with spikes during 2009 and the pandemic.

The price of bitcoin has been crashing (but has often seen extreme volatility over the years). 


Bitcoin price chart from March 2024 to November 2025, peaking near $125,000 before dropping sharply.

Consumer Sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan Consumer Surveys remains near a 45-year low, due to substantial concerns about prices, personal finances, inflation, and, increasingly, job security. 

The price of oil: With concerns regarding the slowdown of the global economy, it has been declining - moving in a contrary direction to inflation - of which the latest reading was 3%.


Brent crude oil price chart, 2000–2025, highlighting the 2008 crash, pandemic drop, and 2022 spike.
 





 





 
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Meet Alexander

Meet Alexander Lurie

Alexander Fromm Lurie is a highly accomplished San Francisco real estate professional and the leader of The Lurie Group, a top-performing team recognized among the top 1% of agents in the city. With over a decade of experience in the real estate industry and California DRE License #01952347, Alexander has built a reputation for delivering exceptional results, with hundreds of homes sold and over $1 billion in total sales volume. Born and raised in San Francisco, he brings deep local expertise, generational knowledge of the Bay Area, and a strong connection to the community into every client relationship. His approach goes beyond transactions—focusing on helping clients build meaningful connections to neighborhoods, schools, and local culture while navigating the buying or selling process with confidence.

Alexander’s background in management consulting and entrepreneurship further strengthens his strategic approach to real estate, allowing him to provide clients with a competitive edge in pricing, negotiation, and marketing. Known for his integrity, discretion, and client-first mindset, he continues to be a trusted advisor for buyers, sellers, and investors across San Francisco’s dynamic real estate market.

Alexander Lurie

Founder | Real Estate Advisor
LICENSE NUMBER
01952347
ADDRESS
629 Divisadero Ave, San Francisco, CA 94117

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